Well, for various reasons, this is my new home for the blog.
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IN: $223
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I wanted to talk about a hand, and tell you what I decided to do and why.
You have a rag flush in a family pot, and you bet pot on the flop to charge any singleton draws the max. The villian pushes 150 BB effective stacks. You remember the villian has pushed on you not more than 10 hands ago. Your play?
In analyzing this hand, I thought that the chance of a stone bluff was about zero. If the villian has a set or a singleton (which I am assuming is always better than my rags) then he is drawing to something like 1/3 equity. If the villian has a flush with me, then I am drawing dead.The proper play depends on the conditional probability you assign to the event: given that the villian has pushed, what percent of the time does he have a flush with you?
Unfortunately this probability is impossible to calculate.
You can calculate the probability that the villian has a flush with you. But you cannot calculate the probability that he has a flush with you given that he has pushed.
So at the table, my analysis goes like this: best case, I am a 2-1 favorite, and worst case I have 0 equity. Given any reasonable percent for the villian having a flush with me, and my best case equity looks like 50%, at best. However, given that the villian has already pushed on me once recently, I am giving credence to a lesser hand.
I was deep in the shades of gray.
Here's how I broke the deadlock.
What would happen if I called and won with the most likely holding, him having one suit? I would feel, honestly, like I escaped a tornado. Shell-shocked and certainly relieved. We are 150 bbs deep and that is a lot to call off.
What would happen if I called and lost to a better flopped flush? I would feel awful. I was up for the day about the amount that was on the table, and to donk it off in such a manner would be mentally devastating.
Taking the psychological factors into consideration, I folded. In the muck I find AJ off, with the A being of the proper suit. So I folded 2/3 equity in a monster pot with the best hand. I think I made the right play given the information at hand.
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Another day at the grind NL10. I shoud hit 80K hands total for the qwest today.
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Song of the Day: Blue Eyes Crying in the Rain by Willie Nelson
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1 comentario:
good way of thinking when in doubt.
I hate these situations and I never can remember that formula for calculating the chance that there's a higher flush out there never mind use it under a time limit and pressure.
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