Your Unique Trajectory Thru The Cosmos

Penny for your thoughts?

OK, its 5AM and I can't sleep, so what the hey.

I once did a simulation of flipping a coin. I kept track of the total number of heads versus the total number of tails. Of course, what I expected to see was that the total number of heads and the total number of tails would take turns being in the lead, weaving back and forth to form a graphical helix extending into infinity. That is exactly what I found and exactly what I did not find.

At first, when I looked at the results, I thought I had an error in the program. Graphs of about 1 million samples showed a strange anomoly. There would be some initial weaving, and then the heads and tails would diverge for good. How strange, thought I.

I should mention, in part, the reason I think this experiment is useful is that in many ways it simulates two otherwise equal poker players.

So anyhoo, I get more into the simulation, and let it run longer, looking specifically at the zero transition points. That is to say, the points in which we have exactly in 3 samples: a heads + balance, zero balance, a tails + balance, or vice-versa. The points when the lead changes.What I found is so ingrained upon my mind that I will never forget it. Simply stated an aggregate advantage for heads or tails can last 100s of millions of flips.This absolutely blew me away.And what is really strange is that it seems common for, after some initial posturing, the trial to resort into this kind of diversion.

But then I realized it was my preconception that was at play. I was expecting the length of time for the weaving to be, oh I don't know, something reasonable, like 100 or 200. But the average frequency of the oscillation turns out to be much higher. Much much higher.I also think a lot about hard questions.

It seems that a lot of times we are faced with not-very-clear-cut questions that are impossibly cast into shades of grey. Take for example the question that relates to two siblings: "why must you two always fight?" Notwithstanding the cottage industry of dubious self-help books and fly-by-night Oprah wannabees offering a solution to the problem I would submit that the the problem is in the question.It is malformed.A malformed question has no proper answer. 2+2=4. But what is 4? 4 is 2+2 but also 3+1 and 9-5. 4 is malformed. "Why must you two always fight?" is malformed insofar as we can cast a meta questions "What can we do to prevent you two from fighting?" that renders the original question mute. I personally think a lot of questions that thinkers and poets struggle with can be recast with a meta-question, however I won't even mention them since a lot of them touch on very sensitive subjects that a lot of people have intense feelings upon.

Why must I go through a losing streak of this breadth and width, one in which given my play is clearly inappropriate, one in which after 2 weeks and more is causing me physical symptoms?Questions like these are difficult. One reason is that good players keep emotions like these bottled up so not to expose an achilles heel to potential adversaries. Another reason is that even if they were to open up their feelings what they had to say wouldn't make much sense- it would probably sound like "variance yada yada yada variance yada yada yada."

Anyone who has studied statistics in any way knows that when results are aggregated they form a distribution. One of the most disturbing facts of a distribution is that the unluckiest man in the world is a statistical necessity, as is the luckiest.

Many people, including me, are hoping that poker will provide a career path in light of alternatives that are personally revolting. Unfortunately, this desire only acts as extra baggage to shade our play. Instead of making the open-minded cold-blooded play, we are forever shaded toward the hopeful play. Even if its just a little, its always there. I think his actions represent an overpair turns into, in some percentage or another, I think his actions represent an overpair but I hope I'm wrong.

Losing streaks can be emotionally damaging, not to mention extremely lonely times. If you need a friend, I'm sailing right behind. Like a bridge over troubled water, I will ease your mind. Do you ever notice how many beautiful things there are in the world? I have in my mind one maybe 5 second stretch of "Diamonds in the Soles of her Shoes" by Paul Simon where his voice is nothing short of angelic. I don't even want to ever hear the song again because it certainly could not live up to the image in my mind.

Well, the coffee's done and its time to put away last night's dishes.

Suerte.